An Optimal Nucleic Acid Testing Strategy for COVID-19 during the Spring Festival Travel Rush in Mainland China: A Modelling Study.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 18(4)2021 02 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1085096
ABSTRACT
Western countries are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to increasing public transportation during holiday seasons. This study aimed to explore whether mainland China will face an epidemic rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, when millions of Chinese people travel across the country, and investigate which nucleic acid testing (NAT) strategy is optimal to contain the epidemic. A microsimulation model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission among railway travelers and evaluated the effects of various NAT strategies. An extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was built to forecast local transmission during the Spring Festival period under different scenarios of testing strategies. The total number of infections, testing burden, and medical expenditure were calculated to devise an optimal strategy during the Spring Festival travel rush. Assuming the daily incidence of 20 per 10 million persons, our model simulated that there would be 97 active infections on the day of travel among 10 million railway passengers without NAT and symptom screening. Pre-travel testing could reduce the number of active infections. Compared with no NAT, testing passengers from risk tier 2-4 regions 3 days before travelling could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, and it is more economical and efficient than testing for all passengers.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Travel
/
COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing
/
COVID-19
/
Holidays
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Ijerph18041788
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