On the Threshold of Release of Confinement in an Epidemic SEIR Model Taking into Account the Protective Effect of Mask.

ABSTRACT

We present a classic SEIR model taking into account the daily movements of individuals in different places. The model also takes into account partial confinement of individuals. This model is coupled with a model of protection against the epidemic by the use of masks. We are studying the effects of combined confinement and protection measures on the dynamics of the epidemic. We consider a constant proportion of asymptomatic people. We assume that symptomatic infected people may change their urban travel behavior due to the disease which causes them to travel less to places where they used to move and to stay at home more often. We present a sensitivity study with respect to the parameters. We show that the combination of the use of masks with almost complete release of confinement makes it possible to avoid the occurrence of a secondary peak of the epidemic. The model predicts that a total release of confinement can be successful for an epidemic of [Formula see text] if on average a proportion of [Formula see text] of the population wears masks of [Formula see text] efficacy. However, if [Formula see text] of the population remains confined, the same goal can be achieved with a proportion of [Formula see text] of the population wearing masks with efficacy of the order of [Formula see text].