Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units.
PLoS One
; 16(2): e0247265, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1090541
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
RATIONALE The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources. OBJECTIVES:
We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic.METHODS:
We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry. MEASUREMENTS The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19. MAINRESULTS:
The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources.CONCLUSION:
A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Hospital Mortality
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Hospitalization
/
Intensive Care Units
/
Length of Stay
/
Models, Biological
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0247265
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