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COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.
Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa; Fetene, Dagnachew Muluye; Koye, Digsu N; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Gesesew, Hailay; Birhanu, Mulugeta Molla; Adane, Akilew Awoke; Muluneh, Muluken Dessalegn; Dachew, Berihun Assefa; Abrha, Solomon; Aregay, Atsede; Ayele, Asnakew Achaw; Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M; Gebremariam, Kidane Tadesse; Gebremedhin, Tesfaye; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebremichael, Lemlem; Geleto, Ayele Bali; Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun; Kibret, Getiye Dejenu; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema; Mekonnen, Alemayehu; Mirkuzie, Alemnesh H; Mohammed, Hassen; Tegegn, Henok Getachew; Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse; Kinfu, Yohannes.
  • Alene KA; Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia kefyalew.alene@curtin.edu.au.
  • Gelaw YA; School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
  • Fetene DM; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Koye DN; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Melaku YA; School of Women's and Children's Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Gesesew H; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Birhanu MM; Department of Medicine at Royal Melbourne Hospital and Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Adane AA; College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
  • Muluneh MD; College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
  • Dachew BA; School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
  • Abrha S; Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Aregay A; St Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Ayele AA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Bezabhe WM; Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia.
  • Gebremariam KT; Western Sydney University, Penrith South, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Gebremedhin T; Monitoring Evaluation and Research, Amref Health Africa in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Gebremedhin AT; School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
  • Gebremichael L; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Geleto AB; University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Kassahun HT; School of Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
  • Kibret GD; Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
  • Leshargie CT; School of Nursing, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
  • Mekonnen A; School of Pharmacy, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Mirkuzie AH; University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Mohammed H; University of Tasmania Faculty of Health, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
  • Tegegn HG; School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
  • Tesema AG; Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  • Tesfay FH; Lifelong Health, South Australia Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
  • Wubishet BL; University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Kinfu Y; Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e044606, 2021 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1090928
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

METHODS:

Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km.

RESULTS:

This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited.

CONCLUSION:

This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Geography, Medical / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Reviews Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Bmjopen-2020-044606

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Geography, Medical / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Reviews Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Bmjopen-2020-044606