Harnessing peak transmission around symptom onset for non-pharmaceutical intervention and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 1147, 2021 02 19.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1091490
ABSTRACT
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and pairwise transmission statistics during the initial outbreaks of the pandemic outside Wuhan with minimal non-pharmaceutical interventions. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for the size of latent and pre-symptomatic subpopulations during the exponential growth phase, with the local epidemic growth rate as input. We then explore reduction of the basic reproduction number R0 through specific transmission control measures such as contact tracing, testing, social distancing, wearing masks and sheltering in place. When these measures are implemented in combination, their effects on R0 multiply. We also compare our model behaviour to the first wave of the COVID-19 spreading in various affected regions and highlight generic and less generic features of the pandemic development.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-21385-z
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