The Impact of COVID-19 on Weather Forecasts: A Balanced View.
Geophys Res Lett
; 48(4): e2020GL090699, 2021 Feb 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1093320
ABSTRACT
Aircraft reports are an important source of information for numerical weather prediction (NWP). From March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a large loss of aircraft data but despite this it is difficult to see any evidence of significant degradation in the forecast skill of global NWP systems. This apparent discrepancy is partly because forecast skill is very variable, showing both day-to-day noise and lower frequency dependence on the mean state of the atmosphere. The definitive way to cleanly assess aircraft impact is using a data denial experiment, which shows that the largest impact is in the upper troposphere. The method used by Chen (2020, https//doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088613) to estimate the impact of COVID-19 is oversimplistic. Chen understates the huge importance of satellite data for modern weather forecasts and raises more alarm than necessary about a drop in forecast accuracy.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Geophys Res Lett
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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