A multi-regional, hierarchical-tier mathematical model of the spread and control of COVID-19 epidemics from epicentre to adjacent regions.
Transbound Emerg Dis
; 69(2): 549-558, 2022 Mar.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1096940
ABSTRACT
Epicentres are the focus of COVID-19 research, whereas emerging regions with mainly imported cases due to population movement are often neglected. Classical compartmental models are useful, however, likely oversimplify the complexity when studying epidemics. This study aimed to develop a multi-regional, hierarchical-tier mathematical model for better understanding the complexity and heterogeneity of COVID-19 spread and control. By incorporating the epidemiological and population flow data, we have successfully constructed a multi-regional, hierarchical-tier SLIHR model. With this model, we revealed insight into how COVID-19 was spread from the epicentre Wuhan to other regions in Mainland China based on the large population flow network data. By comprehensive analysis of the effects of different control measures, we identified that Level 1 emergency response, community prevention and application of big data tools significantly correlate with the effectiveness of local epidemic containment across different provinces of China outside the epicentre. In conclusion, our multi-regional, hierarchical-tier SLIHR model revealed insight into how COVID-19 spread from the epicentre Wuhan to other regions of China, and the subsequent control of local epidemics. These findings bear important implications for many other countries and regions to better understand and respond to their local epidemics associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Animals
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Transbound Emerg Dis
Journal subject:
Veterinary Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Tbed.14019
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