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Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems.
Ebell, Mark H; Cai, Xinyan; Lennon, Robert; Tarn, Derjung M; Mainous, Arch G; Zgierska, Aleksandra E; Barrett, Bruce; Tuan, Wen-Jan; Maloy, Kevin; Goyal, Munish; Krist, Alex.
  • Ebell MH; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Cai X; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Lennon R; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Tarn DM; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Mainous AG; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Zgierska AE; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Barrett B; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Tuan WJ; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Maloy K; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Goyal M; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
  • Krist A; From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of C
J Am Board Fam Med ; 34(Suppl): S127-S135, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1100015
ABSTRACT

PURPOSE:

Develop and validate simple risk scores based on initial clinical data and no or minimal laboratory testing to predict mortality in hospitalized adults with COVID-19.

METHODS:

We gathered clinical and initial laboratory variables on consecutive inpatients with COVID-19 who had either died or been discharged alive at 6 US health centers. Logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model using no laboratory values (COVID-NoLab) and one adding tests available in many outpatient settings (COVID-SimpleLab). The models were converted to point scores and their accuracy evaluated in an internal validation group.

RESULTS:

We identified 1340 adult inpatients with complete data for nonlaboratory parameters and 741 with complete data for white blood cell (WBC) count, differential, c-reactive protein (CRP), and serum creatinine. The COVID-NoLab risk score includes age, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation and identified risk groups with 0.8%, 11.4%, and 40.4% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.803). The COVID-SimpleLab score includes age, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, WBC, CRP, serum creatinine, and comorbid asthma and identified risk groups with 1.0%, 9.1%, and 29.3% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.833).

CONCLUSIONS:

Because they use simple, readily available predictors, developed risk scores have potential applicability in the outpatient setting but require prospective validation before use.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Risk Assessment / Decision Support Systems, Clinical / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: J Am Board Fam Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Risk Assessment / Decision Support Systems, Clinical / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: J Am Board Fam Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article