Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study.
Br J Surg
; 108(1): 97-103, 2021 Jan 27.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1104800
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled.METHODS:
This was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals.RESULTS:
A total of 4 547 534 (95 per cent c.i. 3 318 195 to 6 250 771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749 247 (513 564 to 1 077 448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328 193 (1 483 834 - 3 450 043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is 5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing 526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million.CONCLUSION:
As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Elective Surgical Procedures
/
Hospital Costs
/
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Br J Surg
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Bjs
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