Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score.
Thorax
; 76(9): 920-929, 2021 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1105535
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.DESIGN:
Multivariable prognostic prediction model.SETTING:
127 Spanish hospitals.PARTICIPANTS:
Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.INTERVENTIONS:
Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. MAIN OUTCOMEMEASURES:
30-day mortality.RESULTS:
Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%).CONCLUSIONS:
A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Logistic Models
/
Hospital Mortality
/
COVID-19
/
Inpatients
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
English
Journal:
Thorax
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Thoraxjnl-2020-216001
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