UNDERESTIMATION OF NOVEL RISKS AND ANTI-PANDEMIC PERFORMANCE: THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF POLITICS AND ADAPTIVE INNOVATION

ABSTRACT

Based on prior research and observations of global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, we study the relationship between underestimation of novel risks and the performance of fighting adversities (PFA). While prior research suggests that underestimation of risks may have some positive effects on PFA, we propose that, for novel adversities such as the COVID-19 pandemic, underestimation of its risk can be very harmful and damaging. We also propose that the relationship between the underestimation and PFA can be moderated by intensiveness of politics (IPS) and adaptive innovation. The contingent model in this paper provides insightful practical implications to risk and disaster management in human collectives.