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Effects of New York's Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: A Modeling Study.
Shen, Mingwang; Zu, Jian; Fairley, Christopher K; Pagán, José A; Ferket, Bart; Liu, Bian; Yi, Stella S; Chambers, Earle; Li, Guoqiang; Guo, Yuming; Rong, Libin; Xiao, Yanni; Zhuang, Guihua; Zebrowski, Alexis; Carr, Brendan G; Li, Yan; Zhang, Lei.
  • Shen M; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Zu J; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Fairley CK; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Pagán JA; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Ferket B; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Liu B; Department of Public Health Policy and Management, College of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Yi SS; Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Chambers E; Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
  • Li G; Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
  • Guo Y; Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
  • Rong L; Department of Family and Social Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Montefiore Health System, Bronx, NY, USA.
  • Xiao Y; School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Zhuang G; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Zebrowski A; Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Carr BG; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Li Y; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
  • Zhang L; Department of Emergency Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
J Urban Health ; 98(2): 197-204, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1111334
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ABSTRACT
There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723-126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692-10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593-141,356) and 9017 (6446-11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373-162,824) and 10,515 (7540-13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Masks Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: J Urban Health Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11524-021-00517-2

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Masks Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: J Urban Health Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11524-021-00517-2