Lessons from COVID-19 mortality data across countries.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Several online sources provide up-to-date open-access data on numbers, rates and proportions of COVID-19 deaths. Our article aims of comparing and interpreting between-country trends of mortality rate, case-fatality and all-cause excess mortality. METHODS: We used data from open databases (Our World in Data mostly) for comparing mortality of eleven western countries (Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA). Between-country trends in mortality rate and case-fatality (both including deaths for COVID-19 as numerator and therefore labelled as COVID-19 mortality metrics) and all-cause excess mortality (i.e. observed deaths during the epidemic compared with those expected based on mortality in the same periods of previous years) were compared. RESULTS: Although Belgium ranks first in mortality from COVID-19 (possibly due to the broadest criterion for attributing a death to COVID-19), it does not rank first for all-cause excess mortality. Conversely, compared with Belgium, the UK, Italy and Spain have reported lower COVID-19 mortality (possibly due to the narrower definitions for a COVID-19 death) but higher all-cause excess mortality. Germany and Austria are the unique countries for which COVID-19 mortality, case-fatality and all-cause excess mortality consistently exhibited the lowest rates. CONCLUSION: Between-country heterogeneity of COVID-19 mortality metrics could be largely explained by differences of criteria for attributing a death to COVID-19; in age/comorbidity structures; in policies for identifying asymptomatic people affected from SARS-CoV-2 infection. All-cause excess mortality is recommended as a more reliable metric for comparing countries.