MR-proADM as prognostic factor of outcome in COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT

Mid Regional pro-ADM (MR-proADM) is a promising novel biomarker in the evaluation of deteriorating patients and an emergent prognosis factor in patients with sepsis, septic shock and organ failure. It can be induced by bacteria, fungi or viruses. We hypothesized that the assessment of MR-proADM, with or without other inflammatory cytokines, as part of a clinical assessment of COVID-19 patients at hospital admission, may assist in identifying those likely to develop severe disease. A pragmatic retrospective analysis was performed on a complete data set from 111 patients admitted to Udine University Hospital, in northern Italy, from 25th March to 15th May 2020, affected by SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Clinical scoring systems (SOFA score, WHO disease severity class, SIMEU clinical phenotype), cytokines (IL-6, IL-1b, IL-8, TNF-α), and MR-proADM were measured. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were collected for analysis. At multivariate analysis, high MR-proADM levels were significantly associated with negative outcome (death or orotracheal intubation, IOT), with an odds ratio of 4.284 [1.893-11.413], together with increased neutrophil count (OR = 1.029 [1.011-1.049]) and WHO disease severity class (OR = 7.632 [5.871-19.496]). AUROC analysis showed a good discriminative performance of MR-proADM (AUROC 0.849 [95% Cl 0.771-0.730]; p < 0.0001). The optimal value of MR-proADM to discriminate combined event of death or IOT is 0.895 nmol/l, with a sensitivity of 0.857 [95% Cl 0.728-0.987] and a specificity of 0.687 [95% Cl 0.587-0.787]. This study shows an association between MR-proADM levels and the severity of COVID-19. The assessment of MR-proADM combined with clinical scoring systems could be of great value in triaging, evaluating possible escalation of therapies, and admission avoidance or inclusion into trials. Larger prospective and controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.