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Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate.
Fyfe, J C; Kharin, V V; Swart, N; Flato, G M; Sigmond, M; Gillett, N P.
  • Fyfe JC; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada. john.fyfe@canada.ca.
  • Kharin VV; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
  • Swart N; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
  • Flato GM; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
  • Sigmond M; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
  • Gillett NP; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
Sci Adv ; 7(10)2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1119273
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Climate / Greenhouse Effect Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Sciadv.abf7133

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Climate / Greenhouse Effect Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Sciadv.abf7133