The analysis of isolation measures for epidemic control of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a susceptible exposed infectious recovered model (SEIR) with isolation measures to evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic based on the prevention and control policy implemented by the Chinese government on February 23, 2020. According to the Chinese government's immediate isolation and centralized diagnosis of confirmed cases, and the adoption of epidemic tracking measures on patients to prevent further spread of the epidemic, we divide the population into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine, confirmed and recovered. This paper proposes an SEIR model with isolation measures that simultaneously investigates the infectivity of the incubation period, reflects prevention and control measures and calculates the basic reproduction number of the model. According to the data released by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, we estimated the parameters of the model and compared the simulation results of the model with actual data. We have considered the trend of the epidemic under different incubation periods of infectious capacity. When the incubation period is not contagious, the peak number of confirmed in the model is 33,870; and when the infectious capacity is 0.1 times the infectious capacity in the infectious period, the peak number of confirmed in the model is 57,950; when the infectious capacity is doubled, the peak number of confirmed will reach 109,300. Moreover, by changing the contact rate in the model, we found that as the intensity of prevention and control measures increase, the peak of the epidemic will come earlier, and the peak number of confirmed will also be significantly reduced. Under extremely strict prevention and control measures, the peak number of confirmed cases has dropped by nearly 50%. In addition, we use the EEMD method to decompose the time series data of the epidemic, and then combine the LSTM model to predict the trend of the epidemic. Compared with the method of directly using LSTM for prediction, more detailed information can be obtained.