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Seeding COVID-19 across Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Reported Importation Events across 49 Countries.
Skrip, Laura A; Selvaraj, Prashanth; Hagedorn, Brittany; Ouédraogo, Andre Lin; Noori, Navideh; Orcutt, Amanda; Mistry, Dina; Bedson, Jamie; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Scarpino, Samuel V; Althouse, Benjamin M.
  • Skrip LA; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Selvaraj P; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Hagedorn B; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Ouédraogo AL; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Noori N; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Orcutt A; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Mistry D; 1Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Bedson J; 2Consultant to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington.
  • Hébert-Dufresne L; 3Department of Computer Science, Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont.
  • Scarpino SV; 4Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont.
  • Althouse BM; 5Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 104(5): 1694-1702, 2021 Mar 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1122145
ABSTRACT
The first case of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was reported by Nigeria on February 27, 2020. Whereas case counts in the entire region remain considerably less than those being reported by individual countries in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, variation in preparedness and response capacity as well as in data availability has raised concerns about undetected transmission events in the SSA region. To capture epidemiological details related to early transmission events into and within countries, a line list was developed from publicly available data on institutional websites, situation reports, press releases, and social media accounts. The availability of indicators-gender, age, travel history, date of arrival in country, reporting date of confirmation, and how detected-for each imported case was assessed. We evaluated the relationship between the time to first reported importation and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) overall score; 13,201 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported by 48 countries in SSA during the 54 days following the first known introduction to the region. Of the 2,516 cases for which travel history information was publicly available, 1,129 (44.9%) were considered importation events. Imported cases tended to be male (65.0%), with a median age of 41.0 years (range 6 weeks-88 years; IQR 31-54 years). A country's time to report its first importation was not related to the GHSI overall score, after controlling for air traffic. Countries in SSA generally reported with less publicly available detail over time and tended to have greater information on imported than local cases.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg Year: 2021 Document Type: Article