The impact of human mobility networks on the global spread of COVID-19.
J Complex Netw
; 8(6): cnaa041, 2020 Dec 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1123245
ABSTRACT
Human mobility networks are crucial for a better understanding and controlling the spread of epidemics. Here, we study the impact of human mobility networks on the COVID-19 onset in 203 different countries. We use exponential random graph models to perform an analysis of the country-to-country global spread of COVID-19. We find that most countries had similar levels of virus spreading, with only a few acting as the main global transmitters. Our evidence suggests that migration and tourism inflows increase the probability of COVID-19 case importations while controlling for contiguity, continent co-location and sharing a language. Moreover, we find that air flights were the dominant mode of transportation while male and returning travellers were the main carriers. In conclusion, a mix of mobility and geography factors predicts the COVID-19 global transmission from one country to another. These findings have implications for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions and the management of transborder human circulation.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Language:
English
Journal:
J Complex Netw
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Comnet
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