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Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
Hu, Shixiong; Wang, Wei; Wang, Yan; Litvinova, Maria; Luo, Kaiwei; Ren, Lingshuang; Sun, Qianlai; Chen, Xinghui; Zeng, Ge; Li, Jing; Liang, Lu; Deng, Zhihong; Zheng, Wen; Li, Mei; Yang, Hao; Guo, Jinxin; Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinhua; Liu, Ziyan; Yan, Han; Shi, Huilin; Chen, Zhiyuan; Zhou, Yonghong; Sun, Kaiyuan; Vespignani, Alessandro; Viboud, Cécile; Gao, Lidong; Ajelli, Marco; Yu, Hongjie.
  • Hu S; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Wang W; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Wang Y; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Litvinova M; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Luo K; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Ren L; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Sun Q; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Chen X; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Zeng G; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Li J; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Liang L; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Deng Z; West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
  • Zheng W; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Li M; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Yang H; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Guo J; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Wang K; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Chen X; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Liu Z; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Yan H; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
  • Shi H; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Chen Z; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhou Y; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Sun K; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Vespignani A; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
  • Viboud C; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Gao L; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Ajelli M; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
  • Yu H; Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China. 810173358@qq.com.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1533, 2021 03 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1125484
Preprint
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ABSTRACT
Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median 5.5, IQR 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Contact Tracing / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-21710-6

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Contact Tracing / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-21710-6