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The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying-the head and neck cancer model.
Matos, Leandro L; Forster, Carlos Henrique Q; Marta, Gustavo N; Castro Junior, Gilberto; Ridge, John A; Hirata, Daisy; Miranda-Filho, Adalberto; Hosny, Ali; Sanabria, Alvaro; Gregoire, Vincent; Patel, Snehal G; Fagan, Johannes J; D'Cruz, Anil K; Licitra, Lisa; Mehanna, Hisham; Hao, Sheng-Po; Psyrri, Amanda; Porceddu, Sandro; Galloway, Thomas J; Golusinski, Wojciech; Lee, Nancy Y; Shiguemori, Elcio H; Matieli, José Elias; Shiguemori, Ana Paula A C; Diamantino, Letícia R; Schiaveto, Luiz Felipe; Leão, Lysia; Castro, Ana F; Carvalho, André Lopes; Kowalski, Luiz Paulo.
  • Matos LL; Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Instituto Do Cancer Do Estado de São Paulo (ICESP), University of São Paulo Medical School, and Faculdade Israelita de Ciências da Saúde Albert Einstein Medical School, Enéas de Carvalho Aguiar avenue, 255, 8th floor, room 8174, Sao Paulo, SP, 05403-000, Brazil.
  • Forster CHQ; Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Marta GN; Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Radiology Oncology, Instituto Do Cancer Do Estado de São Paulo (ICESP), University of São Paulo Medical School, and Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Sírio-Libanês, São Paulo, Brazil.
  • Castro Junior G; Department of Clinical Oncology, Instituto Do Cancer Do Estado de São Paulo (ICESP), University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
  • Ridge JA; Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, USA.
  • Hirata D; Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de São José Dos Campos, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Miranda-Filho A; International Agency for Research On Cancer, Lyon, France.
  • Hosny A; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
  • Sanabria A; Department of Surgery, Universidad de Antioquia, Hospital Universitario San Vicente Fundacion-CEXCA Centro de Excelencia en Enfermedades de Cabeza Y Cuello, Medellin, Colombia.
  • Gregoire V; Department of Radiation Oncology, Léon Bérard Cancer Center, Lyon, France.
  • Patel SG; Head and Neck Surgery Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
  • Fagan JJ; Division of Otolaryngology, University of Cape Town Medical School, Cape Town, South Africa.
  • D'Cruz AK; Oncology Apollo Hospitals, Navi, Mumbai, India.
  • Licitra L; President-Elect, Union for International Cancer Control (UICC), Geneve, Switzerland.
  • Mehanna H; Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Dei Tumori and University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
  • Hao SP; Institute for Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
  • Psyrri A; Department of Otolaryngology of Shin, Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital and Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Porceddu S; Clinical Oncology Department, National Kapodistrian University of Athens Medical School, Attikon University Hospital, Athens, Greece.
  • Galloway TJ; Department of Radiation Oncology, Brisbane's Princess Alexandra Hospital of the University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
  • Golusinski W; Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, USA.
  • Lee NY; Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, The Greater Poland Cancer Centre, Poznan, Poland.
  • Shiguemori EH; Department of Clinical Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
  • Matieli JE; Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Shiguemori APAC; Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de São José Dos Campos, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Diamantino LR; Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência E Tecnologia de São Paulo, Jacareí, Brazil.
  • Schiaveto LF; Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de São José Dos Campos, São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Leão L; Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
  • Castro AF; Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência E Tecnologia de São Paulo, Jacareí, Brazil.
  • Carvalho AL; Clinical Oncology Department, Lenitudes Medical Center & Research, Santa Maria da Feira, Portugal.
  • Kowalski LP; International Agency for Research On Cancer, Lyon, France.
Cancer Causes Control ; 32(5): 459-471, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1126565
ABSTRACT

PURPOSE:

The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model.

METHODS:

An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data.

RESULTS:

The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation.

CONCLUSIONS:

This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Delivery of Health Care / Time-to-Treatment / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Head and Neck Neoplasms Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Cancer Causes Control Journal subject: Epidemiology / Neoplasms Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S10552-021-01411-7

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Delivery of Health Care / Time-to-Treatment / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Head and Neck Neoplasms Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Cancer Causes Control Journal subject: Epidemiology / Neoplasms Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S10552-021-01411-7