Estimation of the impact of comprehensive covid-19 testing in South Korea: A cost-benefit analysis using the extended seir model

ABSTRACT

Comprehensive COVID-19 diagnostic testing is regarded as a critical in preventing the spread of the virus, but only a few studies thus far have sought to assess the net benefits that sustained testing might offer, despite the importance accorded by researchers to evidence-based policy making. We performed a cost-benefit analysis using the extended SEIR model to assess whether maintaining the current level of COVID-19 testing is an economically rational choice compared with counterfactual scenarios. Our results suggest that the relationship between the net benefits and the level of testing assumes an inverted-U shape, which means that comprehensive diagnostic testing is effective in flattening the infection curve, but it is a financial burden to society. This study provides evidence that comprehensive diagnostic testing would not be a good strategy for countries with scant financial and medical resources, considering the costs. Furthermore, undertaking comprehensive diagnostic testing without implementing other strategies is a limited approach to preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, this study suggests that policy makers should find ways to improve the effectiveness of tests, not just increase the level of tests. © 2020 by the GSPA, Seoul National University.