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Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana.
Andronico, Alessio; Tran Kiem, Cécile; Paireau, Juliette; Succo, Tiphanie; Bosetti, Paolo; Lefrancq, Noémie; Nacher, Mathieu; Djossou, Félix; Sanna, Alice; Flamand, Claude; Salje, Henrik; Rousseau, Cyril; Cauchemez, Simon.
  • Andronico A; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France. alessio.andronico@pasteur.fr.
  • Tran Kiem C; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Paireau J; Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
  • Succo T; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Bosetti P; Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France.
  • Lefrancq N; Santé Publique France Guyane, French National Public Health Agency, Cayenne, France.
  • Nacher M; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Djossou F; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Sanna A; Centre d'Investigation Clinique Antilles Guyane, CIC INSERM 1424, Centre Hospitalier Andrée Rosemon, Cayenne, France.
  • Flamand C; DFR Santé, Université de Guyane, Cayenne, France.
  • Salje H; Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Cayenne, France.
  • Rousseau C; Agence Régionale de Santé de Guyane, Cayenne, France.
  • Cauchemez S; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1634, 2021 03 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1132074
Preprint
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ABSTRACT
While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: South America / English Caribbean / Guyana / French Guiana Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-21944-4

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: South America / English Caribbean / Guyana / French Guiana Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-21944-4