Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 5839, 2021 03 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1132092
ABSTRACT
Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-82932-8
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