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Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state.
Abueg, Matthew; Hinch, Robert; Wu, Neo; Liu, Luyang; Probert, William; Wu, Austin; Eastham, Paul; Shafi, Yusef; Rosencrantz, Matt; Dikovsky, Michael; Cheng, Zhao; Nurtay, Anel; Abeler-Dörner, Lucie; Bonsall, David; McConnell, Michael V; O'Banion, Shawn; Fraser, Christophe.
  • Abueg M; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Hinch R; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Wu N; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Liu L; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Probert W; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Wu A; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Eastham P; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Shafi Y; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Rosencrantz M; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Dikovsky M; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Cheng Z; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • Nurtay A; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Abeler-Dörner L; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Bonsall D; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • McConnell MV; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
  • O'Banion S; Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
  • Fraser C; Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA. obanion@google.com.
NPJ Digit Med ; 4(1): 49, 2021 Mar 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1132107
ABSTRACT
Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple and Google's Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties to explore how digital exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, and mobility scenarios. In a model with 15% participation, we found that exposure notification could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6% and could effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe this can provide health authorities in Washington state and beyond with guidance on how exposure notification can complement traditional interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Language: English Journal: NPJ Digit Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41746-021-00422-7

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Language: English Journal: NPJ Digit Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41746-021-00422-7