A simple numerical and analytical analysis of covid-19 progression, infection inhibition and control in various countries

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 disease outspread and its subsequent control and inhibition strategies in various countries have been different which led to quite drastic differences in the outcome of the disease progression. In this study, we present a simple analytical and numerical study of Covid-19 disease spread and control by applying the modified SIR model of epidemic outbreak to explain the Covid spread from February-July 2020 in various countries. Two approaches are evident from the disease progression one focused on disease eradication and inhibition and the other is less restrictive dynamic response. Both the approaches are analytically modeled to determine the parameters that characterize the effectiveness of dealing with the disease spread. The model successfully explains the Covid-19 evolution and control of various countries over a vast span of four-five months. The study is highly beneficial to simply analytically and numerically model this complex problem of epidemic proliferation and physical problems involving growth and decay. It assists to easily determine the mathematical parameters for the Covid-19 control measures, helps in predicting the end of the epidemic and most importantly conceiving the judicious way of unlock process to restore communication between cities, states and countries. © 2021, World Research Association. All rights reserved.