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A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.
Chen, Ze; Chen, Jing; Zhou, Jianghua; Lei, Fang; Zhou, Feng; Qin, Juan-Juan; Zhang, Xiao-Jing; Zhu, Lihua; Liu, Ye-Mao; Wang, Haitao; Chen, Ming-Ming; Zhao, Yan-Ci; Xie, Jing; Shen, Lijun; Song, Xiaohui; Zhang, Xingyuan; Yang, Chengzhang; Liu, Weifang; Zhang, Xiao; Guo, Deliang; Yan, Youqin; Liu, Mingyu; Mao, Weiming; Liu, Liming; Ye, Ping; Xiao, Bing; Luo, Pengcheng; Zhang, Zixiong; Lu, Zhigang; Wang, Junhai; Lu, Haofeng; Xia, Xigang; Wang, Daihong; Liao, Xiaofeng; Peng, Gang; Liang, Liang; Yang, Jun; Chen, Guohua; Azzolini, Elena; Aghemo, Alessio; Ciccarelli, Michele; Condorelli, Gianluigi; Stefanini, Giulio G; Wei, Xiang; Zhang, Bing-Hong; Huang, Xiaodong; Xia, Jiahong; Yuan, Yufeng; She, Zhi-Gang; Guo, Jiao.
  • Chen Z; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Chen J; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhou J; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Lei F; School of Mathematics and Physics, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhou F; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Qin JJ; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhang XJ; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhu L; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liu YM; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Wang H; Medical Science Research Center, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Chen MM; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhao YC; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Xie J; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Shen L; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Song X; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhang X; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Yang C; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liu W; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhang X; Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Guo D; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Yan Y; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liu M; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Mao W; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liu L; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Ye P; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Xiao B; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Luo P; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhang Z; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Lu Z; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Wang J; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Lu H; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Xia X; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Wang D; Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liao X; Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Peng G; Eye Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Liang L; Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Yang J; Infections Department, Wuhan Seventh Hospital, Wuhan, China.
  • Chen G; The Ninth Hospital of Wuhan City, Wuhan, China.
  • Azzolini E; Department of General Surgery, Huanggang Central Hospital, Huanggang, China.
  • Aghemo A; Department of General Surgery, Ezhou Central Hospital, Ezhou, China.
  • Ciccarelli M; Department of Cardiology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Condorelli G; Department of Stomatology, Xiantao First People's Hospital, Xiantao, China.
  • Stefanini GG; Department of Urology, Wuhan Third Hospital and Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
  • Wei X; The Central Hospital of Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Enshi, China.
  • Zhang BH; Department of Neurology, The First People's Hospital of Jingmen affiliated to Hubei Minzu University, Jingmen, China.
  • Huang X; Department of Orthopedics, The First People's Hospital of Jingmen affiliated to Hubei Minzu University, Jingmen, China.
  • Xia J; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Changjiang University, Jingzhou, China.
  • Yuan Y; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou, China.
  • She ZG; Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Xianning Central Hospital, Hubei Province, Xianning, China.
  • Guo J; Xiangyang Central Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang, China.
Curr Med Res Opin ; 37(6): 917-927, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1137872
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources.

METHODS:

6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses.

RESULTS:

Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores ≤ 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS:

The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Risk Assessment / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia / Europa Language: English Journal: Curr Med Res Opin Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 03007995.2021.1904862

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Risk Assessment / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia / Europa Language: English Journal: Curr Med Res Opin Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 03007995.2021.1904862