The Covid-19 Pandemic and Implications for Monetary Policy in Nigeria: A Simulation Study

ABSTRACT

This study complements the emerging literature on the COVID-19 pandemic and provides direction, in the case of Nigeria, for targeting monetary policy response to mitigate the pandemic's economic consequences. We simulate three scenarios (i) do-nothing;(ii) reduce MPR gradually and (iii) reduce MPR drastically;amidst falling oil prices. The do-nothing scenario, although inflationary, would produce a marginal appreciation of the Naira/USD exchange rate. Gradual or drastic reduction of MPR would deliver relative price stability, but will undermine exchange rate stability and deplete external reserves. MPR should optimally not be reduced below 12% in response to the economic effect of the pandemic. © 2021 World Scientific Publishing Company.