Social vulnerability and COVID-19 incidence in a Brazilian metropolis

ABSTRACT

Vulnerability is a crucial factor in addressing COVID-19 as it can aggravate the disease. Thus, it should be considered in COVID-19 control and health prevention and promotion. This ecological study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 cases in a Brazilian metropolis and its association with social vulnerability indicators. Spatial scan analysis was used to identify COVID-19 clusters. The variables for identifying the vulnerability were inserted in a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to identify their spatial relationship with COVID-19 cases. The incidence of COVID-19 in Fortaleza was 74.52/10,000 inhabitants, with 3,554 reported cases and at least one case registered in each neighborhood. The spatial GWR showed a negative relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and demographic density (beta=-0,0002) and a positive relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and the percentage of self-employed >18 years (beta=1.40), and maximum per capita household income of the poorest fifth (beta=0.04). The influence of vulnerability indicators on incidence showed areas that can be the target of public policies to impact the incidence of COVID-19.