Impact of mobility restriction in COVID-19 superspreading events using agent-based model.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 pandemic is an immediate major public health concern. The search for the understanding of the disease spreading made scientists around the world turn their attention to epidemiological studies. An interesting approach in epidemiological modeling nowadays is to use agent-based models, which allow to consider a heterogeneous population and to evaluate the role of superspreaders in this population. In this work, we implemented an agent-based model using probabilistic cellular automata to simulate SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics using COVID-19 infection parameters. Differently to the usual studies, we did not define the superspreaders individuals a priori, we only left the agents to execute a random walk along the sites. When two or more agents share the same site, there is a probability to spread the infection if one of them is infected. To evaluate the spreading, we built the transmission network and measured the degree distribution, betweenness, and closeness centrality. The results displayed for different levels of mobility restriction show that the degree reduces as the mobility reduces, but there is an increase of betweenness and closeness for some network nodes. We identified the superspreaders at the end of the simulation, showing the emerging behavior of the model since these individuals were not initially defined. Simulations also showed that the superspreaders are responsible for most of the infection propagation and the impact of personal protective equipment in the spreading of the infection. We believe that this study can bring important insights for the analysis of the disease dynamics and the role of superspreaders, contributing to the understanding of how to manage mobility during a highly infectious pandemic as COVID-19.