Factors influencing the COVID-19 daily deaths' peak across European countries.
Public Health
; 194: 135-142, 2021 May.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1142206
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The purpose of this study was to determine predictors of the height of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) daily deaths' peak and time to the peak, to explain their variability across European countries. STUDYDESIGN:
For 34 European countries, publicly available data were collected on daily numbers of COVID-19 deaths, population size, healthcare capacity, government restrictions and their timing, tourism and change in mobility during the pandemic.METHODS:
Univariate and multivariate generalised linear models using different selection algorithms (forward, backward, stepwise and genetic algorithm) were analysed with height of COVID-19 daily deaths' peak and time to the peak as dependent variables.RESULTS:
The proportion of the population living in urban areas, mobility at the day of first reported death and number of infections when borders were closed were assessed as significant predictors of the height of COVID-19 daily deaths' peak. Testing the model with a variety of selection algorithms provided consistent results. Total hospital bed capacity, population size, the number of foreign travellers and the day of border closure were found to be significant predictors of time to COVID-19 daily deaths' peak.CONCLUSIONS:
Our analysis demonstrated that countries with higher proportions of the population living in urban areas, countries with lower reduction in mobility at the beginning of the pandemic and countries having more infected people when closing borders experienced a higher peak of COVID-19 deaths. Greater bed capacity, bigger population size and later border closure could result in delaying time to reach the deaths' peak, whereas a high number of foreign travellers could accelerate it.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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