Risk factors for fatal outcome in patients with severe COVID-19: an analysis of 107 cases in Wuhan

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the risk factors of fatal outcome in patients with severe COVID-19. Methods: The clinical characteristics of 107 patients with severe COVID-19 admitted in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from February 12 to March 12, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. During the hospitalization 49 patients died (fatal group) and 58 patients survived (survival group). The clinical characteristics, baseline laboratory findings were analyzed using R and Python statistical software. The risk factors of fatal outcome in patients with severe COVID-19 were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression. Results: Univariate analysis showed that the two groups had statistically significant differences in age, clinical classification, dry cough, dyspnea and laboratory test indicators (P<0.05 or <0.01). The random forest model was used to rank the significance of the statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis, and the selected variables were included in the binary logistic regression model. After stepwise regression analysis, the patient's clinical type, age, neutrophil count, and the proportion of CD3 cells are independent risk factors for death in severe COVID-19 patients. Dry cough is an independent protective factor for the death of severe COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with fatal outcome are more likely to have suppressed immune function, secondary infection and inflammatory factor storm. These factors may work together in severe patients, leading to intractable hypoxemia and multiple organ dysfunction and resulting in fatal outcome of patients. The study indicates that timely intervention and treatment measures against above factors may be effective to save the lives of patients with severe COVID-19. Copyright © 2020 by the Chinese Medical Association.