A fractional order SITR mathematical model for forecasting of transmission of COVID-19 of India with lockdown effect.
Results Phys
; 24: 104067, 2021 May.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1144915
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we consider a mathematical model to explain, understanding, and to forecast the outbreaks of COVID-19 in India. The model has four components leading to a system of fractional order differential equations incorporating the refuge concept to study the lockdown effect in controlling COVID-19 spread in India. We investigate the model using the concept of Caputo fractional-order derivative. The goal of this model is to estimate the number of total infected, active cases, deaths, as well as recoveries from COVID-19 to control or minimize the above issues in India. The existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions are established. In addition, the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points of the fractional-order system and the basic reproduction number are studied for understanding and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in India. The next step is to carry out sensitivity analysis to find out which parameter is the most dominant to affect the disease's endemicity. The results reveal that the parameters η , µ and ρ are the most dominant sensitivity indices towards the basic reproductive number. A numerical illustration is presented via computer simulations using MATLAB to show a realistic point of view.
Full text:
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Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Results Phys
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.rinp.2021.104067
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