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Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Berry, Christopher R; Fowler, Anthony; Glazer, Tamara; Handel-Meyer, Samantha; MacMillen, Alec.
  • Berry CR; Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
  • Fowler A; Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 anthony.fowler@uchicago.edu.
  • Glazer T; Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
  • Handel-Meyer S; Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
  • MacMillen A; Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(15)2021 04 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1152938
ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not find detectable effects of these policies on disease spread or deaths. We find small but measurable effects on mobility that dissipate over time. And we find small, delayed effects on unemployment. We conduct additional analyses that separately assess the effects of expanding versus withdrawing SIP orders and test whether there are spillover effects in other states. Our results are consistent with prior studies showing that SIP orders have accounted for a relatively small share of the mobility trends and economic disruptions associated with the pandemic. We reanalyze two prior studies purporting to show that SIP orders caused large reductions in disease prevalence, and show that those results are not reliable. Our results do not imply that social distancing behavior by individuals, as distinct from SIP policy, is ineffective.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Emergency Shelter / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Emergency Shelter / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article