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Population Movement, City Closure in Wuhan, and Geographical Expansion of the COVID-19 Infection in China in January 2020.
Liu, Kun; Ai, Siqi; Song, Shuxuan; Zhu, Guanghu; Tian, Fei; Li, Huan; Gao, Yuan; Wu, Yinglin; Zhang, Shiyu; Shao, Zhongjun; Liu, Qiyong; Lin, Hualiang.
  • Liu K; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.
  • Ai S; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Song S; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.
  • Zhu G; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
  • Tian F; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Li H; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Gao Y; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
  • Wu Y; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Zhang S; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Shao Z; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.
  • Liu Q; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
  • Lin H; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Clin Infect Dis ; 71(16): 2045-2051, 2020 11 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1153144
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The unprecedented outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Wuhan City has caused global concern; the outflow of the population from Wuhan was believed to be a main reason for the rapid and large-scale spread of the disease, so the government implemented a city-closure measure to prevent its transmission considering the large amount of travel before the Chinese New Year.

METHODS:

Based on the daily reported new cases and the population-movement data between 1 and 31 January, we examined the effects of population outflow from Wuhan on the geographical expansion of the infection in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan using different closing-date scenarios.

RESULTS:

We observed a significantly positive association between population movement and the number of the COVID-19 cases. The spatial distribution of cases per unit of outflow population indicated that the infection in some areas with a large outflow of population might have been underestimated, such as Henan and Hunan provinces. Further analysis revealed that if the city-closure policy had been implemented 2 days earlier, 1420 (95% confidence interval, 1059-1833) cases could have been prevented, and if 2 days later, 1462 (1090-1886) more cases would have been possible.

CONCLUSIONS:

Our findings suggest that population movement might be one important trigger for the transmission of COVID-19 infection in China, and the policy of city closure is effective in controlling the epidemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Coronavirus Infections / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Clin Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cid

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Coronavirus Infections / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Clin Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cid