Risk factors for severe disease and efficacy of treatment in patients infected with COVID-19: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis. (COVID special issue #2.)

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread globally in the beginning of 2020. At present, predictors of severe disease and the efficacy of different treatments are not well understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all published studies up to 15 March 2020, which reported COVID-19 clinical features and/or treatment outcomes. Forty-five studies reporting 4203 patients were included. Pooled rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mortality, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were 10.9%, 4.3%, and 18.4%, respectively. On meta-regression, ICU admission was predicted by increased leukocyte count (P < .0001), alanine aminotransferase (P=.024), and aspartate transaminase (P=.0040);elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (P < .0001);and increased procalcitonin (P < .0001). ARDS was predicted by elevated LDH (P < .0001), while mortality was predicted by increased leukocyte count (P=.0005) and elevated LDH (P < .0001). Treatment with lopinavir-ritonavir showed no significant benefit in mortality and ARDS rates. Corticosteroids were associated with a higher rate of ARDS (P=.0003).