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Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China.
Ge, Yong; Zhang, Wen-Bin; Wang, Jianghao; Liu, Mengxiao; Ren, Zhoupeng; Zhang, Xining; Zhou, Chenghu; Tian, Zhaoxing.
  • Ge Y; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. gey@lreis.ac.cn.
  • Zhang WB; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China. gey@lreis.ac.cn.
  • Wang J; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
  • Liu M; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
  • Ren Z; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
  • Zhang X; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
  • Zhou C; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
  • Tian Z; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 604, 2021 03 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1158201
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ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of different resumption strategies on COVID-19 transmission using a modeling study setting.

METHODS:

We employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks under five reopening strategies based on China's business resumption progress. The effect of each strategy was evaluated using the peak values of the epidemic curves vis-à-vis confirmed active cases and cumulative cases. Two-sample t-test was performed in order to affirm that the pick values in different scenarios are different.

RESULTS:

We found that a hierarchy-based reopen strategy performed best when current epidemic prevention measures were maintained save for lockdown, reducing the peak number of active cases and cumulative cases by 50 and 44%, respectively. However, the modeled effect of each strategy decreased when the current intervention was lifted somewhat. Additional attention should be given to regions with significant numbers of migrants, as the potential risk of COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening is intrinsically high.

CONCLUSIONS:

Business resumption strategies have the potential to eliminate COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening without special control measures. The proposed resumption strategies focused mainly on decreasing the number of imported exposure cases, guaranteeing medical support for epidemic control, or decreasing active cases.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Disease Outbreaks / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-021-10624-z

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Disease Outbreaks / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-021-10624-z