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Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios.
Salman, Amer M; Ahmed, Issam; Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi; Dheyab, Mohammed Ali.
  • Salman AM; School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia.
  • Ahmed I; School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia.
  • Mohd MH; School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia. Electronic address: mohdhafizmohd@usm.my.
  • Jamiluddin MS; School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia.
  • Dheyab MA; Nano-Optoelectronics Research and Technology Lab (NORLab), School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia.
Comput Biol Med ; 133: 104372, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1171429
Semantic information from SemMedBD (by NLM)
1. COVID-19 CAUSES Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Subject
COVID-19
Predicate
CAUSES
Object
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
2. Eye LOCATION_OF COVID-19
Subject
Eye
Predicate
LOCATION_OF
Object
COVID-19
3. COVID-19 CAUSES Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Subject
COVID-19
Predicate
CAUSES
Object
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
4. Eye LOCATION_OF COVID-19
Subject
Eye
Predicate
LOCATION_OF
Object
COVID-19
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and it is highly contagious with significant mortality. In this study, we conduct a scenario analysis for COVID-19 in Malaysia using a simple universality class of the SIR system and extensions thereof (i.e., the inclusion of temporary immunity through the reinfection problems and limited medical resources scenarios leads to the SIRS-type model). This system has been employed in order to provide further insights on the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. As a case study, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics are investigated using daily confirmed cases in Malaysia, where some of the epidemiological parameters of this system are estimated based on the fitting of the model to real COVID-19 data released by the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH). We observe that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and it is possible for transmission dynamics to be influenced by the reinfection force and limited medical resources problems. A rebound effect in transmission could occur after several years and this situation depends on the intensity of reinfection force. Our analysis also depicts the existence of a critical value in reinfection threshold beyond which the infection dynamics persist and the COVID-19 outbreaks are rather hard to eradicate. Therefore, understanding the interplay between distinct epidemiological factors using mathematical modelling approaches could help to support authorities in making informed decisions so as to control the spread of this pandemic effectively.
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Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Long Covid Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Comput Biol Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.compbiomed.2021.104372

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Long Covid Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Comput Biol Med Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.compbiomed.2021.104372