Parameter estimation from ICC curves.

Lega, Joceline

Lega, Joceline.

Lega J; Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.

J Biol Dyn ; 15(1): 195-212, 2021 12.

Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1172612

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Incidence vs. Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including those associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Subject(s)

COVID-19/epidemiology; Pandemics/statistics & numerical data; SARS-CoV-2; Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data; COVID-19/transmission; China/epidemiology; Computer Simulation; Disease Susceptibility; Gastroenteritis/epidemiology; Humans; Incidence; Mathematical Concepts; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Nonlinear Dynamics; Poisson Distribution; Signal-To-Noise Ratio; Spain/epidemiology

Keywords

Outbreak; compartmental models; parameter identification

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia / Europa Language: English Journal: J Biol Dyn Journal subject: Biology Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 17513758.2021.1912419

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