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Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis.
Zhang, Tianchen; Ding, Sheng; Zeng, Zhili; Cheng, Huijian; Zhang, Chengfeng; Mao, Xiangqun; Pan, Huanhong; Xia, Guanghui; Che, Daping.
  • Zhang T; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Ding S; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Zeng Z; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Cheng H; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Zhang C; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Mao X; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Pan H; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Xia G; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China.
  • Che D; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China. chedaping2020@163.com.
J Infect Dev Ctries ; 15(3): 326-332, 2021 03 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1175617
ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.

METHODOLOGY:

Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by "fitdistrplus" package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by "meta" package of R software.

RESULTS:

Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR 3.8 - 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR 3.6 - 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR 1.1 - 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI 5.75 - 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI 4.73 - 5.57), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Statistics as Topic / Infectious Disease Incubation Period / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Reviews Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Infect Dev Ctries Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Jidc.14025

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Statistics as Topic / Infectious Disease Incubation Period / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Reviews Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Infect Dev Ctries Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Jidc.14025