Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis.
J Infect Dev Ctries
; 15(3): 326-332, 2021 03 31.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1175617
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.METHODOLOGY:
Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by "fitdistrplus" package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by "meta" package of R software.RESULTS:
Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR 3.8 - 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR 3.6 - 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR 1.1 - 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI 5.75 - 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI 4.73 - 5.57), respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Statistics as Topic
/
Infectious Disease Incubation Period
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Reviews
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Infect Dev Ctries
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jidc.14025
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