Critical Care Requirements Under Uncontrolled Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Am J Public Health
; 111(5): 923-926, 2021 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1177869
ABSTRACT
Objectives. To estimate the critical care bed capacity that would be required to admit all critical COVID-19 cases in a setting of unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, both with and without elderly-specific protection measures.Methods. Using electronic health records of all 2432 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a large hospital in Madrid, Spain, between February 28 and April 23, 2020, we estimated the number of critical care beds needed to admit all critical care patients. To mimic a hypothetical intervention that halves SARS-CoV-2 infections among the elderly, we randomly excluded 50% of patients aged 65 years and older.Results. Critical care requirements peaked at 49 beds per 100 000 on April 1-2 weeks after the start of a national lockdown. After randomly excluding 50% of elderly patients, the estimated peak was 39 beds per 100 000.Conclusions. Under unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, peak critical care requirements in Madrid were at least fivefold higher than prepandemic capacity. Under a hypothetical intervention that halves infections among the elderly, critical care peak requirements would have exceeded the prepandemic capacity of most high-income countries.Public Health Implications. Pandemic control strategies that rely exclusively on protecting the elderly are likely to overwhelm health care systems.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
Critical Care
/
COVID-19
/
Hospital Bed Capacity
/
Hospitalization
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Am J Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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