Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 2188, 2021 04 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1180242
ABSTRACT
Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Phylogeny
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Phylogeography
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-22366-y
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