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Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon; Boyd, Olivia; Geidelberg, Lily; Jorgensen, David; Nascimento, Fabricia F; Siveroni, Igor; Johnson, Robert A; Baguelin, Marc; Cucunubá, Zulma M; Jauneikaite, Elita; Mishra, Swapnil; Watson, Oliver J; Ferguson, Neil; Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A; Volz, Erik.
  • Ragonnet-Cronin M; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. manonragonnet@imperial.ac.uk.
  • Boyd O; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Geidelberg L; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Jorgensen D; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Nascimento FF; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Siveroni I; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Johnson RA; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Baguelin M; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Cucunubá ZM; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Jauneikaite E; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Mishra S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Watson OJ; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Ferguson N; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Cori A; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Donnelly CA; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Volz E; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2188, 2021 04 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1180242
ABSTRACT
Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Phylogeny / Communicable Disease Control / Phylogeography / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-22366-y

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Phylogeny / Communicable Disease Control / Phylogeography / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-22366-y