Radiomics analysis of chest CT to predict the overall survival for the severe patients of COVID-19 pneumonia.

ABSTRACT

Personalized assessment and treatment of severe patients with COVID-19 pneumonia have greatly affected the prognosis and survival of these patients. This study aimed to develop the radiomics models as the potential biomarkers to estimate the overall survival (OS) for the COVID-19 severe patients. A total of 74 COVID-19 severe patients were enrolled in this study, and 30 of them died during the follow-up period. First, the clinical risk factors of the patients were analyzed. Then, two radiomics signatures were constructed based on two segmented volumes of interest of whole lung area and lesion area. Two combination models were built depend on whether the clinic risk factors were used and/or whether two radiomics signatures were combined. Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed for validating two radiomics signatures and C-index was used to evaluated the predictive performance of all radiomics signatures and combination models. Finally, a radiomics nomogram combining radiomics signatures with clinical risk factors was developed for predicting personalized OS, and then assessed with respect to the calibration curve. Three clinical risk factors were found, included age, malignancy and highest temperature that influence OS. Both two radiomics signatures could effectively stratify the risk of OS in COVID-19 severe patients. The predictive performance of the combination model with two radiomics signatures was better than that only one radiomics signature was used, and became better when three clinical risk factors were interpolated. Calibration curves showed good agreement in both 15 d survival and 30 d survival between the estimation with the constructed nomogram and actual observation. Both two constructed radiomics signatures can act as the potential biomarkers for risk stratification of OS in COVID-19 severe patients. The radiomics+clinical nomogram generated might serve as a potential tool to guide personalized treatment and care for these patients.