Using newspaper obituaries to "nowcast" daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots.
Health Policy
; 125(4): 535-540, 2021 04.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1182512
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to "nowcast" the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperform forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially valid alternative source of information to deal with epidemic surveillance.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Population Surveillance
/
Internet
/
Forecasting
/
COVID-19
/
Newspapers as Topic
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Health Policy
Journal subject:
Health Services Research
/
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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