Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 8358, 2021 04 16.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1189284
ABSTRACT
Climate seems to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but the findings of the studies performed so far are conflicting. To overcome these issues, we performed a global scale study considering 134,871 virologic-climatic-demographic data (209 countries, first 16 weeks of the pandemic). To analyze the relation among COVID-19, population density, and climate, a theoretical path diagram was hypothesized and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM), a powerful statistical technique for the evaluation of causal assumptions. The results of the analysis showed that both climate and population density significantly influence the spread of COVID-19 (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). Overall, climate outweighs population density (path coefficients climate vs. incidence = 0.18, climate vs. prevalence = 0.11, population density vs. incidence = 0.04, population density vs. prevalence = 0.05). Among the climatic factors, irradiation plays the most relevant role, with a factor-loading of - 0.77, followed by temperature (- 0.56), humidity (0.52), precipitation (0.44), and pressure (0.073); for all p < 0.001. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that climatic factors significantly influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, demographic factors, together with other determinants, can affect the transmission, and their influence may overcome the protective effect of climate, where favourable.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Climate
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-87113-1
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