Development and validation of a simple-to-use nomogram to predict the deterioration and survival of patients with COVID-19.
BMC Infect Dis
; 21(1): 356, 2021 Apr 16.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1190061
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
COVID-19 pandemic has forced physicians to quickly determine the patient's condition and choose treatment strategies. This study aimed to build and validate a simple tool that can quickly predict the deterioration and survival of COVID-19 patients.METHODS:
A total of 351 COVID-19 patients admitted to the Third People's Hospital of Yichang between 9 January to 25 March 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were randomly grouped into training (n = 246) or a validation (n = 105) dataset. Risk factors associated with deterioration were identified using univariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The factors were then incorporated into the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the survival of patients between the low- and high-risk groups divided by the cut-off point.RESULTS:
The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to construct the nomogram via four parameters (white blood cells, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte≥0.8 × 109/L, and lactate dehydrogenase ≥400 U/L). The nomogram showed good discriminative performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.945 (95% confidence interval 0.91-0.98), and good calibration (P = 0.539). Besides, the nomogram showed good discrimination performance and good calibration in the validation and total cohorts (AUROC = 0.979 and AUROC = 0.954, respectively). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model had clinical application value. Kaplan-Meier analysis illustrated that low-risk patients had a significantly higher 8-week survival rate than those in the high-risk group (100% vs 71.41% and P < 0.0001).CONCLUSION:
A simple-to-use nomogram with excellent performance in predicting deterioration risk and survival of COVID-19 patients was developed and validated. However, it is necessary to verify this nomogram using a large-scale multicenter study.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Nomograms
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12879-021-06065-z
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