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Impact of RT-PCR Test False-Negative Results for SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in Mexico.
Núñez, Isaac; Belaunzarán-Zamudio, Pablo F.; Caro-Vega, Yanink.
  • Núñez I; Department of Internal Medicine, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán (INCMyNSZ), Mexico City, Mexico
  • Belaunzarán-Zamudio PF; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
  • Caro-Vega Y; Department of Infectious Diseases, INCMyNSZ, Mexico City, Mexico
Rev Invest Clin ; 73(2): 120-6, 2020 12 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1291309
ABSTRACT

Background:

Underestimation of the number of cases during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been a constant concern worldwide. Detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA using realtime reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the most common method to confirm a case. However, these tests have suboptimal sensitivity.

Objective:

The objective of the study was to estimate the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in Mexico, accounting for the probabilities of false-negative tests.

Methods:

We used publicly available, national databases of all SARS-CoV-2 tests performed at public laboratories in Mexico between February 27 and October 31, 2020. We used the estimated probabilities of false-negative tests based on the day of clinical sample collection after symptom initiation calculated previously. With the resulting model, we estimated the corrected daily number of cases, ICU admissions, and deaths.

Results:

Among 2,024,822 people tested in Mexico between February 27 and October 31 with an available result, we estimated 1,248,583 (95% confidence interval 1,094,850-1,572,818) cases, compared to 902,343 cases reported with positive tests. ICU admissions and deaths were 15% and 8% higher than reported, respectively.

Conclusion:

Accounting for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-based diagnostic tests' precision is a simple way to improve estimations for the true number of COVID-19 cases among tested persons.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Journal: Rev Invest Clin Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ric.20000587

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Journal: Rev Invest Clin Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ric.20000587