A Clinical Risk Score to Predict In-hospital Mortality from COVID-19 in South Korea.
J Korean Med Sci
; 36(15): e108, 2021 Apr 19.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1194583
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Early identification of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at high risk of mortality is of vital importance for appropriate clinical decision making and delivering optimal treatment. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical risk score for predicting mortality at the time of admission of patients hospitalized with COVID-19.METHODS:
Collaborating with the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), we established a prospective consecutive cohort of 5,628 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection who were admitted to 120 hospitals in Korea between January 20, 2020, and April 30, 2020. The cohort was randomly divided using a 73 ratio into a development (n = 3,940) and validation (n = 1,688) set. Clinical information and complete blood count (CBC) detected at admission were investigated using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score (COVID-Mortality Score). The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves.RESULTS:
The incidence of mortality was 4.3% in both the development and validation set. A COVID-Mortality Score consisting of age, sex, body mass index, combined comorbidity, clinical symptoms, and CBC was developed. AUCs of the scoring system were 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.91) and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93) in the development and validation set, respectively. If the model was optimized for > 90% sensitivity, accuracies were 81.0% and 80.2% with sensitivities of 91.7% and 86.1% in the development and validation set, respectively. The optimized scoring system has been applied to the public online risk calculator (https//www.diseaseriskscore.com).CONCLUSION:
This clinically developed and validated COVID-Mortality Score, using clinical data available at the time of admission, will aid clinicians in predicting in-hospital mortality.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Hospital Mortality
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Korean Med Sci
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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