Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province.
Science
; 372(6540): 412-417, 2021 04 23.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1199748
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Understanding when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We used a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated before the time of the most recent common ancestor of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that more than two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Genome, Viral
/
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Animals
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Science.abf8003
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