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Prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2 following the first peak of infection in England: Serial cross-sectional studies of 365,000 adults.
Ward, Helen; Cooke, Graham S; Atchison, Christina; Whitaker, Matthew; Elliott, Joshua; Moshe, Maya; Brown, Jonathan C; Flower, Barnaby; Daunt, Anna; Ainslie, Kylie; Ashby, Deborah; Donnelly, Christl A; Riley, Steven; Darzi, Ara; Barclay, Wendy; Elliott, Paul.
  • Ward H; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
  • Cooke GS; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.
  • Atchison C; MRC Centre for Global infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Whitaker M; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Elliott J; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.
  • Moshe M; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
  • Brown JC; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.
  • Flower B; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
  • Daunt A; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
  • Ainslie K; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Ashby D; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Donnelly CA; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Riley S; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.
  • Darzi A; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Barclay W; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.
  • Elliott P; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 4: 100098, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1213413
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The time-concentrated nature of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England in March and April 2020 provides a natural experiment to measure changes in antibody positivity at the population level before onset of the second wave and initiation of the vaccination programme.

METHODS:

Three cross-sectional national surveys with non-overlapping random samples of the population in England undertaken between late June and September 2020 (REACT-2 study). 365,104 adults completed questionnaires and self-administered lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) tests for IgG against SARS-CoV-2.

FINDINGS:

Overall, 17,576 people had detectable antibodies, a prevalence of 4.9% (95% confidence intervals 4.9, 5.0) when adjusted for test characteristics and weighted to the adult population of England. The prevalence declined from 6.0% (5.8, 6.1), to 4.8% (4.7, 5.0) and 4.4% (4.3, 4.5), over the three rounds of the study a difference of -26.5% (-29.0, -23.8). The highest prevalence and smallest overall decline in positivity was in the youngest age group (18-24 years) at -14.9% (-21.6, -8.1), and lowest prevalence and largest decline in the oldest group (>74 years) at -39.0% (-50.8, -27.2). The decline from June to September 2020 was largest in those who did not report a history of COVID-19 at -64.0% (-75.6, -52.3), compared to -22.3% (-27.0, -17.7) in those with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed on PCR.

INTERPRETATION:

A large proportion of the population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in England based on naturally acquired immunity from the first wave. Widespread vaccination is needed to confer immunity and control the epidemic at population level.

FUNDING:

This work was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care in England.

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100098

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100098