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Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.
Yu, Cheng-Jun; Wang, Zi-Xiao; Xu, Yue; Hu, Ming-Xia; Chen, Kai; Qin, Gang.
  • Yu CJ; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, Nantong University, Nantong, China.
  • Wang ZX; Department of Computer Science, New York Institute of Technology, New York, NY, USA.
  • Xu Y; School of Pharmacy, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau.
  • Hu MX; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, Nantong University, Nantong, China.
  • Chen K; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, Nantong University, Nantong, China.
  • Qin G; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nantong University, Nantong, China.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(18): e25837, 2021 May 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1216698
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures.

METHODS:

Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R0 estimates differed across the world. The average R0 values were pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS:

We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09-5.39). The R0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China.

CONCLUSIONS:

The high R0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Document Type: Article Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Global Health / Basic Reproduction Number / COVID-19 Subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Global Health / Basic Reproduction Number / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) Year: 2021

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Document Type: Article Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Global Health / Basic Reproduction Number / COVID-19 Subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Global Health / Basic Reproduction Number / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) Year: 2021
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