Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.
Medicine (Baltimore)
; 100(18): e25837, 2021 May 07.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2191001
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures.METHODS:
Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R0 estimates differed across the world. The average R0 values were pooled using a random-effects model.RESULTS:
We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09-5.39). The R0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China.CONCLUSIONS:
The high R0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Global Health
/
Basic Reproduction Number
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
/
Reviews
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Medicine (Baltimore)
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
MD.0000000000025837
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